Today's 1-1 draw against Middlesbrough, our 15^th of the season, now leaves us precariously poised just one place and one point above the drop zone. At this rate, we would end the season on 49 points and probably replace Norwich City in League 1.

Short of a stunning turnaround in their fortunes, Peterborough look doomed and Plymouth Argyle must be favourites to join them in League 1 next season but up to eight other teams including the Blues are vulnerable to the drop.

Sheffield Wednesday, Scunthorpe Utd and Reading are all picking up points regularly and our previous five-point lead over 22nd placed Reading is now down to one point.

The good news is that although only eight of the last 18 games are at Portman Road, most of these home games are winnable, especially the six-pointers against Scunthorpe Utd, Plymouth Argyle, Reading and Doncaster Rovers, plus the Bristol City and Barnsley games.

Away from Suffolk, the six-pointers against Peterborough, Sheffield Wednesday and Scunthorpe Utd this month and with Derby County in April also look winnable as well.

The outcome of these games is likely to make or break Town this season - win all eight matches against the other relegation contenders and we'll be up to 54 points and safety. However slip up, as we have done so often this season against the lesser lights and we could be in real trouble.

Being realistic, we are unlikely to get much change from our home games with Cardiff City and Sheffield Utd and away fixtures at Swansea City, Nottingham Forest and Newcastle Utd. Having said that, Town will doubtless win unexpectedly against one of the front-runners and then lose when we least expect it.

The key thing now is to stay up this season and then emulate Nottingham Forest by strengthening the first team squad, especially the forward line, in the close season so that we can mount a strong promotion drive next year.

In the meantime, if the worst comes to the worst (and I still don't think it will), it would not be the end of the world for the Tractor Boys if we dropped into League 1 for the first time since the early days of the Alf Ramsey era in the mid-1950's.

Looking at the Premier League table, eight of the 20 sides have been in League 1 since the Premier League was formed back in 1992:

• Bolton Wanderers - promoted back to the Championship in 1992/2
• Birmingham City - promoted in 1994/5
• Fulham - promoted in 1998/9
• Manchester City - promoted in 1998/9
• Burnley - promoted in 1999/2000
• Stoke City - promoted in 2001/2
• Wigan Athletic - promoted in 2002/3
• Hull City - promoted in 2004/5

The moral of the story here is that these teams have fought back and ultimately prospered again - usually on the back of an understanding/ambitious board and a good manager who has been given time to re-build the team.

Looking at the League 1 table, seven of the 24 teams by contrast have been in the top flight during the Premier League era:

• Swindon Town - relegated back to the Championship in 1992/3
• Oldham Athletic - relegated in 1993/4
• Wimbledon/MK Dons - relegated in 1999/2000
• Leeds Utd - relegated in 2003/4
• Norwich City - relegated in 2004/5
• Southampton - relegated in 2004/5
• Charlton Athletic - relegated in 2006/7

The moral of this story is that with the exception of Arsenal and Everton who have played in the top flight continuously since 1919 and 1954 respectively, even big city clubs like Spurs, Chelsea, Leeds, Newcastle and the two Manchester clubs can fall foul of the cyclical ups and downs of English football.

Despite our current problems, based on our track record during the past half century most Town fans expect Ipswich to be play off contenders in the Championship at the very least.

We have a good stadium and a strong fan base and a proud history based on the achievements of two great managers. We also have an English owner - an East Anglian to boot. This is a real plus for our club when you look at the problems currently afflicting the likes of Portsmouth (financial instability) and QPR (revolving door policy towards its managers).

The fact that we are under-performing at the moment emphasises that Roy Keane and his team will need to deliver the goods next season or face the wrath of the Ipswich fans who have been pretty tolerant so far.

Whether Roy is the right man for Ipswich in the longer term remains to be seen. He has cleared out a lot of dead wood but in terms of short-term results the club has gone backwards. Like most fans, I still think that more dead wood needs to be pruned in the obvious areas and we need to get a couple of proven goal scorers who can cut it at Championship level.